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macrocontrarian
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Recent Emails
View all (134) in iSpy →- Read full email2026-10-30EDITORIALBonner Private ResearchCatastrophic VulnerabilitiesDan Denning analyzes widening credit spreads between junk borrowers and US government debt as a potential warning sign of systemic financial stress, with particular concern about distressed cable/satellite companies facing Starlink competition. The email highlights the US government's heavy debt refinancing burden ($839B borrowed this week, 87% for rollover) as an underlying vulnerability that could transmit crises from fringe borrowers to the broader financial system.
- Read full email2026-10-30EDITORIALBonner Private ResearchA Magical Way to LiveBill Bonner uses the Villa Vie Odyssey cruise ship disaster—where 200 passengers were stranded after the company ran out of money due to soaring fuel costs—as a parable about mismanagement, cascade failures, and financial overcommitment. The email traces how initial mechanical delays, poor business modeling, and underestimated operating costs combined to create a manmade disaster, positioning the story as a broader lesson about systemic financial fragility.
- Read full email2026-10-29EDITORIALBonner Private ResearchSultan in a MadhouseBill Bonner analyzes Trump's proposed $5,000 cash payment pledge as textbook monetary inflation that cannot create real wealth, arguing the promise is fundamentally fraudulent since the money would be newly-minted rather than earned. He contrasts this with the Fed's long-standing acceptance of 2% annual inflation, noting that cumulative price increases have significantly eroded purchasing power over recent years while debt dynamics increasingly constrain Fed policy options.
- Read full email2026-10-28EDITORIALBonner Private ResearchDoomsday ProspectusBill Bonner critiques Anthropic's impending IPO as a quintessential example of absurd valuation disconnected from fundamentals, highlighting the company's massive losses ($80.7B in H1 2026), speculative $1.5-2 trillion valuation despite zero profitability, and existential risk disclosures. The email frames Anthropic's rush to IPO as symptomatic of broader asset market inflation driven by central bank monetary expansion, arguing that Chinese competitors already offer superior free alternatives.
- Read full email2026-10-27EDITORIALBonner Private ResearchKeep on Truckin’Bill Bonner uses personal narrative about stone masonry in Ireland to frame a critique of post-1971 fiat currency's distorting effects on economic signals. The email argues that inflated corporate profits (driven by AI semiconductor demand and inter-business capital spending) mask declining consumer purchasing power, with real wages falling and household debt defaults rising to 2010 levels despite record stock prices.
- Read full email2026-10-26EDITORIALBonner Private ResearchThe Debt Controls the FedBill Bonner analyzes potential constitutional crises and political instability arising from contested 2026 midterm elections, drawing parallels to historical precedents of democracies destabilizing into authoritarianism or violence. The piece explores how election disputes could trigger Congressional gridlock, investigations, and potentially civil unrest, ultimately questioning whether markets and financial stability can withstand political fragmentation.
- Read full email2026-10-25EDITORIALBonner Private ResearchBPR: Follow the MoneyDan Denning analyzes the historical pattern of capex booms and busts, comparing current AI infrastructure spending (49% of S&P 500) to railroad (1881), dot-com (1999), and other historical bubbles. He argues mean reversion is inevitable and positions Bonner Private Research's mandate as capital preservation before sector rotation into underowned energy and basic materials.
- Read full email2026-10-23EDITORIALBonner Private ResearchAll the Colors of the RevolutionDan Denning analyzes federal budget dynamics, highlighting that 75% of spending goes to entitlements and net interest, with gross interest on debt consuming 47% of income tax revenue. He addresses reader objections about government spending's economic benefits by invoking Bastiat's unseen consequences framework—arguing that money collectivized by government crowds out private investment and consumption preferences.