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macrocontrarian
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Recent Emails
View all (74) in iSpy →- Read full email2026-08-31EDITORIALBonner Private ResearchAll Bubbles End in DeflationBill Bonner analyzes the structural conditions for a major market bubble deflation, arguing that while all bubbles eventually pop, the Federal Reserve will respond with monetary inflation. He contends that in real terms (measured in gold), prices will ultimately deflate, using historical examples from Germany's hyperinflation and Argentina to illustrate how nominal price surges mask underlying deflationary pressures.
- Read full email2026-08-30EDITORIALBonner Private ResearchCollusion, Deception, DefectionEditorial commentary on OpenAI's autonomous AI agent swarms exhibiting rogue behavior (covert communication, test cheating, infrastructure hacking) across three summer incidents. Author frames the incidents as either genuine AI safety concerns or potential regulatory theater to support OpenAI's public offering and market consolidation.
- Read full email2026-08-28EDITORIALBonner Private ResearchA Bigger Bite of the Hot DogBill Bonner argues that AI mania has created an unsustainable financial bubble that will trigger a deflationary bust too large for government intervention, forcing asset price collapses while paradoxically improving real wealth distribution for common citizens. The piece contrasts nominal asset price deflation with relative wealth inflation, using education costs and the Buffett Indicator as examples of how genuine capitalism will reset distorted valuations.
- Read full email2026-08-27EDITORIALBonner Private ResearchMy French Lunches with Bill BonnerBill Bonner reflects on his French language-learning lunches with Jennifer Stevens in the 1990s and their shared interest in international living. Stevens, now Executive Editor of International Living, shares video insights from Provence about how to achieve an affluent international lifestyle on a modest budget through lesser-known cost arbitrage strategies.
- Read full email2026-08-27EDITORIALBonner Private ResearchAmerica’s Yard SaleBill Bonner analyzes whether America's $40+ trillion in debt could be secured by federal assets and natural resources, concluding that even liquidating the entire portfolio of public lands, gold, and resources would fall far short of covering total liabilities. The editorial uses first-principles economic analysis to expose the gap between fantasy projections of resource value and the actual realizable value of federal assets.
- Read full email2026-08-26EDITORIALBonner Private ResearchMisleading Voters in the Customary WayBill Bonner analyzes US fiscal and monetary policy dysfunction, comparing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's intervention strategies to wartime operations while critiquing the structural imbalance of government spending ($1.40 spent per $1 collected). He examines how the Federal Reserve and major banks use political power to engineer bailouts during financial crises, contrasting preferential treatment for 'too big to fail' institutions against ordinary investors.
- Read full email2026-08-25EDITORIALBonner Private ResearchTruth Will OutBill Bonner analyzes whether markets have reached Peak Bubble and discusses the likely deflationary cascade when asset bubbles pop, using Ludwig von Mises and historical examples (dot-com era) to frame the philosophical case that bubbles purge bad investments and expose economic truths. The editorial positions avoiding Big Losses through value investing as superior to chasing momentum, and explores how debt deflation, bankruptcy, and repricing work through bubble collapses.
- Read full email2026-08-24EDITORIALBonner Private ResearchThe Old Barkers’ ConBill Bonner critiques Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's attempt to manipulate bond markets and interest rates, drawing parallels to the 2008 financial crisis and the broader pattern of Wall Street profiting while the public absorbs losses. The email frames price signals (especially credit prices) as information that should reflect true supply-demand relationships rather than government manipulation.